+- Sick Gaming (https://www.sickgaming.net)
+-- Forum: Programming (https://www.sickgaming.net/forum-76.html)
+--- Forum: Python (https://www.sickgaming.net/forum-83.html)
+--- Thread: [Tut] Modelling TSLA. How many humanoids in 2030? (/thread-103628.html)
[Tut] Modelling TSLA. How many humanoids in 2030? - xSicKxBot - 12-10-2025
[Tut] Modelling TSLA. How many humanoids in 2030?
<div><p>Elon targets billions of robots – but, understandably, doesn’t provide super clear guidance on the growth story (that I’m aware of).</p>
<p>Everybody agrees on the importance of Optimus for TSLA investment case.</p>
<p>We can ball-park the profit per TSLA bot in the long-term ($5k – $50k lifetime value for TSLA)</p>
<p><strong>How many TSLA bots will we have though? Say 12/31/2035</strong></p>
<p>I feel there are 2-3 orders of magnitude variation so I thought a quick poll might be useful (collective intelligence).</p>
<p><strong>Why is this relevant?</strong></p>
<p>Here’s a very simple profit model as a function of number of units and profit per unit (NFA):</p>
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>0.1M bots @ $5k LTV ==> $0.5B profit</li>
<li>1M bots @ $10k LTV ==> $10B profit</li>
<li>10M bots @ $10k LTV ==> $100B profit</li>
<li>1B bots @ $15k LTV ==> $15T profit</li>
</ul>
<p>The profit story is more dependent on the number of humanoids and less dependent on the profit per unit.</p>
<p>The number of units dominates the profit story.</p>
<p>Tesla aims to produce 1M bots per year by 2030 but how will the growth look like?</p>
<p>Here’s a sand-bagged case from Elon’s target of 1M robots produced in 2030:</p>
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>2025: 2,000</li>
<li>2026: 8,000</li>
<li>2027: 40,000</li>
<li>2028: 150,000</li>
<li>2029: 300,000</li>
<li>2030: 500,000 <– cumulative 1,000,000 units produced by end of 2030</li>
<li>2031: 1,500,000</li>
<li>2032: 3,000,000</li>
<li>2033: 5,000,000</li>
<li>2034: 7,000,000</li>
<li>2035: 10,000,000</li>
</ul>
<p>That would yield a rough 10M x $10k = $100B profit in 2035. The humanoid segment market cap could be 20-40 time that, i.e., $2T-$4T.</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://blog.finxter.com/modelling-tsla-how-many-humanoids-in-2030/">Modelling TSLA. How many humanoids in 2030?</a> appeared first on <a href="https://blog.finxter.com">Be on the Right Side of Change</a>.</p>
</div>
https://www.sickgaming.net/blog/2025/12/02/modelling-tsla-how-many-humanoids-in-2030-2/