Elon targets billions of robots – but, understandably, doesn’t provide super clear guidance on the growth story (that I’m aware of).
Everybody agrees on the importance of Optimus for TSLA investment case.
We can ball-park the profit per TSLA bot in the long-term ($5k – $50k lifetime value for TSLA)
How many TSLA bots will we have though? Say 12/31/2035
I feel there are 2-3 orders of magnitude variation so I thought a quick poll might be useful (collective intelligence).
Why is this relevant?
Here’s a very simple profit model as a function of number of units and profit per unit (NFA):
- 0.1M bots @ $5k LTV ==> $0.5B profit
- 1M bots @ $10k LTV ==> $10B profit
- 10M bots @ $10k LTV ==> $100B profit
- 1B bots @ $15k LTV ==> $15T profit
The profit story is more dependent on the number of humanoids and less dependent on the profit per unit.
The number of units dominates the profit story.
Tesla aims to produce 1M bots per year by 2030 but how will the growth look like?
Here’s a sand-bagged case from Elon’s target of 1M robots produced in 2030:
- 2025: 2,000
- 2026: 8,000
- 2027: 40,000
- 2028: 150,000
- 2029: 300,000
- 2030: 500,000 <– cumulative 1,000,000 units produced by end of 2030
- 2031: 1,500,000
- 2032: 3,000,000
- 2033: 5,000,000
- 2034: 7,000,000
- 2035: 10,000,000
That would yield a rough 10M x $10k = $100B profit in 2035. The humanoid segment market cap could be 20-40 time that, i.e., $2T-$4T.
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